This is really exciting.

Yesterday we learned that the NRA will be putting some major bucks (a $40 million dollar effort) towards slamming Obama on gun control in battleground states.  

Well we are returning fire. Elizabeth Edwards, already such an effective surrogate for Obama when it comes to Health Care, is headlining the group Health Care for America Now to advocate for Universal Health Care and criticize Mccain's ridiculous plan. Via Politico:

Next week, the group Health Care for America Now will unveil a $40 million effort, with the first ad buy being a $1.5 million in national print, online and broadcast advertising.

...

The group's goal is to provide "quality, affordable health care for every American," and it obviously dovetails with the Obama campaign's promise of providing universal health care. The group will spend $25 million in paid media, while also funding 100 organizers involved in events around the country.

I am feeling pretty frustrated. I won't write a GBCW because that would be as unproductive as the diaries that are frustrating me so much.

But I was re-reading Dreams from My Father earlier today. When I first read it three years ago, I really only knew Obama as a writer and I was thinking about what a lyrical and poetic and beautiful story it was.

But having followed this campaign for 17 months, I feel like I know Barack Obama the man, or at least, having become incredibly invested in this campaign, I feel like part of his journey. Anyway, on this read, this passage stuck out to me.

p. 49

'If you want to grow into a human being,’ she would say to me, ‘you’re going to need some values.

"’Honesty – Lolo should not have hidden the refrigerator in the storage room when the tax officials came, even if everyone else, including the tax officials, expected such things.  

Fairness – the parents of wealthier students should not give television sets to the teachers during Ramadan, and their children could take no pride in the higher marks they might have received."  

I feel soooooooo silly using a diary on this...I am hanging my head in shame, as I type this.

But I have become strangely attached to the contest that Parents.com is having between the two possible First Ladies, (or rather between their cookies). I didn't make Cindy's recipe, but Michelle's shortbread cookies are THE BESTEST, and plus, it will give her a nice round of good publicity when she wins the contest.

Also, ever since Cindy Mccain's highly unladylike attack on Michelle Obama last week, and since I learned that Cindy actually plagiarized her recipe, I am just really determined for Michelle to take her down.

Until today, Michelle was ahead by almost 130 votes. But Cindy has been really closing in--perhaps Red State is freeping it? Anyway, if you have two seconds PRETTY PLEASE go and vote for Michelle? If you already signed up for this thing last week when it first started, you can actually vote again, every single day, so just log in and vote for Michelle.

Thank you! You may now return to the serious political news!

Ever since May's lackluster numbers, I think a lot of folks are worried about Obama's fundraising. I am actually GLAD that people are worried since it makes them more likely to give.

But I have been closely tracking Obama's money intake, as best as I could, over the past month and I would say we have NOTHING to worry about.

The main difference between this month and last month is that they are doing a TON of fundraisers. Having the nomination wrapped up has freed both Barack and Michelle from having to campaign constantly and both are using their time to really rake in the cash.

Yesterday Michelle held TWO fundraisers. One in the afternoon in Alabama that had about 250 guests for at least $1,000 a pop. Then in the evening, she went to Washington DC and had another one.

Last week I did something I would normally NEVER consider.

As I was busily stacking my groceries on the conveyor belt I came to face with...Michelle and Barack, looking so happy and in love on the cover of US Weekly! And naturally, I bought the thing. Literally the first time I have ever, ever spent money on a celebrity magazine.

And, I wasn't the only one. Michelle's cover issue was apparently a big success!!

Putting Michele Obama on the cover of Us Weekly appears to be a gamble that’s paid off. Early sales numbers for the celeb glossy are trickling in, and according to sources that are familiar, the June 30 issue could sell more than 900,000 copies. (A spokesperson for Us declined comment, saying that whether good or bad, the magazine doesn’t comment on week-to-week sales.)

To put the numbers in perspective, sales for the prior three weeks’ covers  averaged about 710,000 copies per week.

A new poll out tonight from ABC/WAPO has uniformly good news as well as some areas where Barack can progress.

Highlights:

Obama has more work to do with Hillary's voters. This particular poll doesn't show much of a unity bounce. I think when she and Bill start campaigning for him it will go a long, long way toward getting those folks back.  

Almost nine in 10 Republicans now support McCain, while not quite eight in 10 Democrats said they support Obama. Nearly a quarter of those who said they favored Clinton over Obama for the nomination currently prefer McCain for the general election, virtually unchanged from polls taken before Clinton suspended her campaign.

One EXTREMELY encouraging sign....Americans are catching on that Mccain is really Mcbush!!

In general, 57 percent said McCain would continue to lead the country as Bush has, while 38 percent said he would chart a new course.

This is BEFORE Obama runs ads defining him. So that's a great start.

(More below the fold)

Happy Father's day to all the Daddy Kossacks out there!

Today Barack gave a speech about Fatherhood and what it means to him. It was--surprise, surprise-- a really wonderful speech. I thought that others, like myself, might also enjoy reading it. And maybe the video will be available soon?

Anyway, full transcript after the jump.

I thought I should write up today's Rasmussen poll since yesterday's showed Obama losing a point and folks were worried the bounce wouldn't last. But he's actually holding steady at 6 points, attracting 47% of the vote and John McCain gets 41%. With "leaners" Obama hits 50% and still leads by 6%.

In the Rasmussen weekly tracking poll listing of 2004, which you can check out here, you'll see that John Kerry never had a lead of 6 points. His biggest lead was 2.8 points, in August. Most of the time he was behind or led by much less than that. Like 1.4 or even .6. George Bush also never had a lead of six points. So ignore the Dukakis comparison--that poll was probably an outlier. When we compare where Obama is now to where Kerry was in 2004, he is in a markedly stronger position.

When Hillary and Bill Clinton start campaigning for Barack and when he starts advertising on television, I expect he will increase this lead somewhat.

So....is anyone else rather obsessed with 270towin.com? I find myself fiddling around with the various scenarios of the electoral college several times a day. Sometimes I give Barack a landslide, flipping North Carolina and Montana and Indiana and even Georgia and turning them blue.

But most of the time, I play a rather depressing game. I call it, What If He Loses Ohio? The most recent Ohio polls show it as basically a toss-up.  Of course, this was before Hillary dropped out. The Unity bounce which we have seen have a huge effect on national polls will undoubtedly be felt in individual states as well.

That said, Ohio includes large swaths of Appalachia, and large numbers of the Hardworking Americans that have given Barack a lot of trouble. Unlike Pennsylvania, it doesn't have huge cities that can offset his weak spots. I am basically not optimistic.

BUT Barack can win the Electoral College without Ohio with very little difficulty. In fact, there are at least two completely realistic ways. They are

1. Kerry States + Iowa, New Mexico and  Colorado

2. Kerry States +  Iowa and Virginia

I have this incredibly goofy smile on my face right now. What caused it? Reading this account of Terry McAuliffe at Hillary's staff party:

Looking relaxed, McAuliffe stopped by to speak briefly with reporters, saying the entire campaign staff is looking to "take some time, relax, and do everything we can to help Barack Obama."

"It was a great campaign, 17 months... Talk about her breaking the glass ceiling, and I think she shattered it. She got in, she got more than 18 million votes, she won a lot of important states. I think I speak for all the staff here, they’re very proud. It was an exciting campaign. It was very close, but now we do everything we can to help Barack Obama become the next president, because it’s about the issues."

McAuliffe said Clinton's mood is "great." Asked if she'd soon do a campaign swing for Obama, he said she would "do anything."

"She has made that clear, she will do anything she can to help Barack Obama," he said. "If he wants her to travel every day she’ll do that."

He would not give much insight into what she'd say tomorrow, saying only that it would get people "pumped up" and build the momentum for the final five months.

Via TPM

Sen. Hillary Clinton visited staff at her headquarters in Arlington, Virginia Wednesday just after most of them had been told they would no longer have to report to work after Friday.

A staffer who was in the room said she invited all of her campaign staff to come to her home on Friday.

Before Clinton arrived, the staff was told that they would be paid through June 15th. But the bulk of the staff was told their last day of work would be Friday.

Junior staffers were emotional and some were crying and as Clinton left her headquarters, she waved to cameras outside.

Reading this passage made me rather sad. Not because I forgive or excuse Hillary's behavior...but because I can understand that she fought very hard for this nomination and must be terribly disappointed. I can relate to that even as I think less of her for every hour that goes by without conceding.

Hillary Clinton sent out a letter to the Superdelegates today. In it, she makes a brilliant case for herself and why she should be the nominee. I am  a Superdelegate myself and I wrote back to Hillary with my annotated response.

Dear _________,

The stakes in this election are so high: with two wars abroad (One of which you recklessly voted for, and which your opponent wisely opposed), our economy in crisis here at home, and so many families struggling across America, the need for new leadership has never been greater.

At this point, we do not yet have a nominee (Yes, we do)– and when the last votes are cast on June 3, neither Senator Obama nor I will have secured the nomination (Obama will have secured it unless the "They" that Bill Clinton was talking about turn on him). It will be up to automatic delegates like you (Please don't insult my intelligence by using that term) to help choose our party’s nominee, and I would like to tell you why I believe I am the stronger candidate against Senator McCain and would be the best President and Commander in Chief. (Sigh. OK. Hillary. Go on.)

Yes! More of this please...!

Barack is in Las Vegas today giving a really scathing speech on the housing crisis and the economy in general. It is chock-full of policy proposals but he is also quite expertly tying Mccain to Bush.  He even poked fun at the sad little fundraiser they are having in Arizona today!

Some highlights

On the fundraiser

I just had the privilege of visiting with Felicitas Rosel and Francisco Cano at their home here in Las Vegas.

Today, John McCain is having a different kind of meeting. He’s holding a fundraiser with George Bush behind closed doors in Arizona. No cameras. No reporters. And we all know why. Senator McCain doesn’t want to be seen, hat-in-hand, with the President whose failed policies he promises to continue for another four years.

The other diary on this slipped off the page so here's the happy info:

Barack Obama has picked up three superdelegate votes from Hawaii.

Hawaii Democrats selected three Obama supporters to fill its remaining superdelegate slots at their state convention today, including the new chair and vice chair of the party.

Chairman Brian Schatz and vice chairwoman Kari Luna say they will support Obama at the national convention. State Democrats chose retired Judge James Burns, also an Obama supporter, as the final superdelegate.

The three Obama supporters are among the state's nine superdelegates, only two of whom support Obama's rival Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Among Hawaii's pledged delegates, Obama leads Clinton 14-6.

This puts him.....LESS THAN 50 DELEGATES AWAY!!! Yet another important milestone reached, and how lovely that it was Barack's home state than brought him there. :)

Many of you may remember the tiny Japanese town that has been enthusiastically supporting Barack Obama's campaign--because they share a name and they hope that if Obama becomes president, they will be a tourist destination. A pretty savvy plan if you ask me!

Anyway, they are all pretty stoked about last nights results.

As US presidential candidate Barack Obama declared he was "within reach" of the Democratic nomination for the White House, the city of Obama in western Japan was dancing with glee today.

Amid fresh enthusiasm, self-styled Obama supporters were gathering in beachside Obama Park to celebrate the candidate’s march to the nomination with local hula dancers as the sun sets.

"We believed this day would come. There were days we were worried, but we are really glad that we have kept working" to support Obama, said Seiji Fujihara, head of the local tourism board.

"We want to have more campaigns that could help Mr Obama and continue our fight until the very end of the election," he said, promising to keep up their support to help Obama beat Republican nominee John McCain.

I was very curious to see how the Gallup poll would react to the Obama/Mccain/Bush engagement. This poll isn't infallible, by any means, but today's update concerns me somewhat. Barack shot way up against Hillary (he is now 9 points ahead) but he went down against Mccain. Hillary beats Mccain by 2 points and Mccain beats Obama by 3 points.

Granted, this could be some of Hillary's supporters who are increasingly coming to the conclusion that Hillary has lost, and saying they will vote for Mccain because they are angry about it. But my concern is that it might actually be a reaction to having the focus shift to foreign policy the way that it has. I have confidence that Barack will make his case well. He HAS made his case well. I just wonder if people will really hear it, and won't react to the kind of underlying narrative that Mccain is setting: Obama is naive and can't protect the country. I hope that over the next few days he will assert that tough diplomacy and military action go hand in hand, and bring up his earlier insight into intervening in Pakistan, which turned out be the right call.

Anyway, I hope his team proceeds with caution.

This little gem of an article has really put a smile on my face. The AP interviewed members of the Rules and Bylaws committee and found that they were pretty much not going to give in to Hillary's demands, and even if they did she would still be way behind. Of course, I already knew that but having that simple truth cut through the "fog of noise" around the Clinton campaign's reasoning is yet another major step in winding this nomination down to a close.

"We certainly want to be fair to both candidates, and we want to be sure that we are fair to the 48 states who abided by the rules," said Democratic National Committee Secretary Alice Germond, a panel member unaligned with either candidate. "We don't want absolute chaos for 2012.

"It has to be a fair process for both candidates," said member Yvonne Gates, an Obama supporter from Nevada who said she wasn't sure what position she would support at the meeting. "My definition is a 50-50 split is something that is fair. It cannot be a situation where you give one candidate more votes than the other. In my opinion that wasn't an election when they didn't have a chance to get out and talk to the people of that community."

Barack Obama just started speaking live. He looks fired up! He just introduced John Edwards and the crowd went wild. They look SO amazing together!

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